| Period | Revenue $B | Rev growth | EPS $ | EPS growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current qtr | 91.75 | 96.3% | 2.08 | 98.1% | 40 |
| Next qtr | 102.92 | 80.6% | 2.35 | 80.5% | 39 |
| FY current | 392.79 | 81.9% | 8.98 | 88.2% | 50 |
| FY next | 555.51 | 41.4% | 12.79 | 42.5% | 50 |
Growth is year over year vs the comparable period. MIDAS computes its own fair value below; consensus is shown for context.
NVIDIA Corporation trades at 203.49 with a market capitalization of 5,115.7 billion dollars. The stock is approximately 24 percent above its 52-week low of 164.06 and 13.7 percent below its 52-week high of 235.78. Revenue in the most recent quarter ending April 2026 reached 81.61 billion dollars, up from 44.06 billion in the year-ago quarter, reflecting continued data center demand. Free cash flow stands at 46.34 billion dollars against 53.17 billion in cash and 12.81 billion in debt. Forward PE is 16.5x on consensus FY current EPS of 8.98 dollars, with FY current revenue consensus at 392.79 billion dollars representing 81.9 percent growth. The 58-analyst consensus target is 301.62 dollars. Directors sold 186 million dollars in open-market transactions in June 2026 with zero insider buys recorded. Next earnings report is scheduled for August 26, 2026.
NVIDIA's AI Infrastructure Dominance and Accelerating Revenue Trajectory Support 21–48% Upside Target.
NVIDIA dominates AI chip supply with accelerating demand from data center buildout. Q2026-04-30 delivered $81.61B revenue and $58.32B net income (63% net margin), underscoring exceptional unit economics. Year-over-year revenue growth of 85.2% reflects sustained AI infrastructure investment cycle. FY next revenue guidance of $555.51B (+41.4%) signals multi-year secular tailwind with structural operating leverage: gross margin 74.1%, operating margin 65.6%, ROE 114.3%. Free cash flow of $46.34B supports capital returns while balance sheet strength ($53.17B cash, $12.81B debt) remains fortress. Current quarter estimates ($91.75B revenue, +96.3%) and next quarter ($102.92B, +80.6%) underscore demand acceleration. At $203.49, stock trades 16.5x forward PE—a 48% discount to 58 analysts' mean target of $301.62. Scenario-based valuation yields expected value of $246.77 (21.3% upside); DCF-to-market divergence reflects market's pricing of AI TAM optionality. Earnings catalyst on 2026-08-26.
DCF fair value of $76.20 (growth 25%, WACC 15.3%) diverges from market price of $203.49, but multi-method scenario analysis yields expected value of $246.77 (21.3% upside). Monte Carlo 12-month distribution: bear $149.1, base $234.66, bull $368.65. Analyst consensus target $301.62 implies 48% upside. Forward PE of 16.5x elevated yet justified by FY revenue growth of 81.9% and EPS growth of 88.2%. Valuation sustainable if revenue/EPS growth remains above 40% through FY+1.
The sell-side case is internally inconsistent: it acknowledges the DCF yields $76.20 (62.6% below market) then pivots to Monte Carlo to manufacture 21.3% upside. A DCF divergence of this magnitude is not 'optionality' — it is the model screaming that current price requires assumptions far beyond 25% terminal growth. The 48% upside to analyst mean target ($301.62) is consensus comfort, not independent analysis — 58 strong-buy ratings on a $5.1T stock means the trade is maximally crowded. Directors sold $186M in June with zero insider buys. The stock trades below its 50-day SMA at $209.06, RSI is 45.5 (neutral, not oversold), and 1-month relative performance is -3.9% vs SPX. At 35.5% annualized vol and 2.211 beta, the risk-reward from $203.49 demands a margin of safety that simply does not exist when a rigorous DCF says fair value is $76.20.
Variant perception. The sell-side frames 16.5x forward PE as cheap, but this is a $5,115.7B company where the DCF at 25% growth and 15.3% WACC yields $76.20 — a 62.6% discount to market. The gap is not 'AI TAM optionality'; it is the market pricing perfection for 3+ years while the DCF prices reality. Insider behavior confirms: zero open-market buys against $186M in director sales in June 2026 alone. The stock sits below its 50-day SMA ($209.06), RSI at 45.5, with 1-month relative underperformance of -3.9% vs SPX. Consensus unanimity (58 analysts, strong_buy) is itself a contrarian signal — when everyone agrees, the asymmetry is to the downside.
For the current price to be right, you must believe:Five-year DCF from a base owner earnings (capex 2.13x D&A) of $99.88B, growth 25 percent (historical, capped), WACC 15.3 percent, terminal growth 2.5 percent: fair value $76.2 per share (-62.6% vs current).
Method divergence. The DCF sits far from the market price; growth names with high betas are punished by a CAPM discount rate. The scenario range therefore anchors to the median of monte_carlo rather than the DCF alone.
| FCF growth \ WACC | 14.3% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | $69.9 | $63.85 | $58.71 |
| 25% | $83.58 | $76.2 | $69.93 |
| 25% | $83.58 | $76.2 | $69.93 |
| Ratios and valuation | |
|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 32.34x |
| P/E (forward) | 16.51x |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.52x |
| EV/Sales | 19.27x |
| FCF yield | 0.9% |
| Dividend yield | 0.47% |
| Growth and margins | |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 85.2% |
| EPS growth | 214.5% |
| Gross margin | 74.1% |
| Operating margin | 65.6% |
| Net margin | 63% |
| ROE | 114.3% |
| Balance sheet and risk | |
|---|---|
| Net debt $B | -40.4 |
| Beta | 2.21 |
| Ann. volatility | 35.5% |
| Max drawdown | -36.9% |
| Short interest | n/a |
| Shares out $B | 24.22 |
| Scenario | Probability | Value | Vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $149.1 | -26.73% |
| Base | 50% | $234.66 | 15.32% |
| Bull | 25% | $368.65 | 81.16% |
| Expected value | $246.77 | 21.3% |
Method: multi-method median (monte_carlo); dcf excluded (diverges >40% from market) · Monte Carlo p10/p50/p90 (12m, 10,000 paths): $149.1 / $234.66 / $368.65 · 1-day parametric VaR on $100k: 95% $3,679, 99% $5,202
| Risk | Severity |
|---|---|
| Hyperscaler capex digestion cycle: customers built massive GPU capacity in 2024-2026 and pause to utilize it, compressing revenue growth well below the 41.4% FY-next estimate | high |
| Customer vertical integration: major buyers (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, Microsoft Maia) scale custom silicon, structurally reducing NVDA's addressable market and pricing power | high |
| Geopolitical/export controls: further US restrictions on China sales or retaliatory measures reduce TAM; China was historically ~20%+ of revenue | high |
| Multiple compression on deceleration: at 2.211 beta, any growth miss triggers outsized drawdown — max DD already -36.9% in trailing period | high |
| Concentration risk: top 4-5 hyperscalers likely represent majority of data center revenue; loss or budget cut from one customer has outsized impact | med |
| Fed policy surprise: 9.2% probability of 25bp rate hike per prediction markets; higher rates compress growth multiples disproportionately on a $5.1T name | low |
Revenue over five reported quarters shows a clear acceleration from 44.06 billion dollars in Q2025-04-30 to 81.61 billion in Q2026-04-30, an 85.2 percent year-over-year increase. Net income in Q2026-04-30 was 58.32 billion dollars on 81.61 billion revenue, yielding a quarterly net margin of 71.4 percent. Sequential revenue growth from Q2026-01-31 at 68.13 billion to Q2026-04-30 at 81.61 billion was 19.8 percent. Current quarter consensus calls for 91.75 billion dollars in revenue with EPS of 2.08 dollars.
| Quarter | Revenue $B | Net income $B |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 81.61 | 58.32 |
| 2026-01-31 | 68.13 | 42.96 |
| 2025-10-31 | 57.01 | 31.91 |
| 2025-07-31 | 46.74 | 26.42 |
| 2025-04-30 | 44.06 | 18.77 |
Price at 203.49 sits below the 50-day simple moving average of 209.06 and above the 200-day at 191.79. RSI-14 reads 45.5, neutral territory. Average true range is 3.22 percent of price. One-month return is negative 0.7 percent with relative underperformance of negative 3.9 percent versus the S and P 500. Annualized volatility is 35.5 percent. Maximum drawdown in the trailing period was negative 36.9 percent.
| 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | -0.7% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 23.4% |
| Rel. to S&P 500 | -3.9% | -2.8% | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| Trend | Ann. vol | Max DD | RSI(14) | SMA50 | SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mixed | 35.5% | -36.9% | 45.5 | $209.06 | $191.79 |
The fed funds rate stands at 3.63 percent with the 10-year Treasury at 4.56 percent. Prediction markets assign a 90.5 percent probability of no rate change at the July 2026 Fed meeting and 9.2 percent to a 25 basis point hike. VIX is at 17.16. Ten-year inflation expectations are 2.26 percent. Unemployment is 4.2 percent.
Fed funds 3.63 · UST 10y 4.56 · 10y-2y 0.36 · Core PCE 130.08 · 10y BE 2.26 · U-3 4.2 · VIX 17.16 (FRED)
Prediction markets (Polymarket): Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July: 90.5% · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju: 0.5% · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul: 9.2% · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul: 0.5%
Open-market: 0 buys, 2 sells, net $-185,999,938. Director sold $66,973,501 on 2026-06-18; Director sold $119,026,437 on 2026-06-18
| Block | Source |
|---|---|
| tape | alpaca |
| fundamentals | yfinance |
| news | tradingview/yahoo |
| edgar_check | sec_xbrl |
| insiders | sec_form4 |
| prediction_markets | polymarket |
| macro | fred |
SEC XBRL cross-check: FY revenue $26.91B (2022-01-30) vs trailing four quarters $253.49B: ttm_above_fy (periods differ; consistent with growth).
Compliance audit: FAIL, 7 issue(s) addressed