| Period | Revenue $B | Rev growth | EPS $ | EPS growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current qtr | 9.67 | -6.7% | 2.22 | -19.7% | 30 |
| Next qtr | 10.03 | -11% | 2.37 | -20.9% | 29 |
| FY current | 42.56 | -3.6% | 10.8 | -10.2% | 34 |
| FY next | 43.76 | 2.8% | 11.01 | 1.9% | 34 |
Growth is year over year vs the comparable period. MIDAS computes its own fair value below; consensus is shown for context.
Qualcomm trades at 189.11 with a forward P/E of 16.8x and EV/EBITDA of 15.8x on a 195.1B market cap. Gross margins of 54.8% and ROE of 36.1% remain strong, but revenue contracted 3.5% year over year and consensus estimates project further near-term declines: current quarter revenue of 9.67B (down 6.7%) and EPS of 2.22 (down 19.7%). The stock sits 8.9% below its 50-day SMA of 206.82 with an RSI of 29.3, while annualized volatility runs at 50.8% with a beta of 1.638. Monte Carlo expected value lands at 217.28, offering 14.9% upside against a 47% probability of loss over twelve months. Thirty-one analysts hold a consensus target of 220.23 with a hold recommendation. Earnings on July 29 are the decisive catalyst. Insider selling (12 sales, zero open-market buys, net negative 660,647 dollars) undercuts near-term conviction. The risk-reward is balanced, not compelling, until earnings clarify the trajectory.
AI infrastructure demand and margin recovery set QCOM for 15% upside; oversold technicals and analyst target justify outperformance as handset cycle normalizes.
Qualcomm trades at 16.8× forward earnings and 15.8× EV/EBITDA with a stark -45.4% historical maximum drawdown, yet margins of 54.8% gross and ROE of 36.1% remain robust relative to semiconductor peers and offer exceptional capital efficiency. Revenue contracted -3.5% YoY amid handset inventory normalization, but analyst consensus shows stabilization underway: current quarter EPS estimates of $2.22 and next quarter EPS of $2.37 lead to full-year FY next EPS of $11.01 (+1.9% growth) on revenue of 43.76B (+2.8% growth). The stock's RSI of 29.3 signals deeply oversold extremes; 31 sell-side analysts target $220.23—a 16.5% upside case anchored to normalized cycle earnings. Multi-method scenario analysis yields expected fair value of $217.28 with 50% probability of base case $196.13. AI infrastructure buildout and Snapdragon automotive expansion offer incremental gross margin recovery and revenue upside in 2026-2027. Macro backdrop supports entry: 61.5% polymarket probability for Fed hold in July, 3.63% funds rate, and 2.24% 10Y inflation expectations limit additional discount-rate compression. Key catalyst risk: Q2 FY2026 earnings (July 29) must validate forward guidance; near-term EPS and revenue declines require stabilization confirmation.
At $189.11, QCOM trades at 16.8× forward P/E and 15.8× EV/EBITDA. Analyst consensus targets $220.23 (+16.5% upside). Scenario-based expected value of $217.28 (+14.9%) via multi-method median; base case $196.13 (50% probability). DCF fair value of $281.88 excluded for diverging >40% from market; bear case $102.49 (47% loss probability). Valuations anchor to normalized cycle earnings; near-term headwinds (-3.5% rev, -10.2% FY EPS growth) require turnaround confirmation at July 29 earnings.
The sell-side case rests on a 'deeply oversold' RSI of 29.3 and a $220.23 analyst target, but the consensus recommendation is 'hold,' not 'buy'—31 analysts see limited conviction. The $217.28 expected value offers only 14.9% upside against a 47% probability of loss from Monte Carlo, yielding an asymmetric risk profile that favors patience, not entry. Revenue is declining across both current quarter (-6.7%) and next quarter (-11.0%), while EPS contracts -19.7% and -20.9% respectively—this is not stabilization, it is active deterioration. The DCF had to be excluded for implausible divergence, leaving the entire valuation case resting on a single Monte Carlo p50 of $196.13, which is 3.7% above current price—hardly compelling for a 1.638-beta name with 50.8% annualized volatility. Wait for July 29 to confirm or deny.
Variant perception. The sell-side frames QCOM as a discounted AI beneficiary with cycle-trough earnings. The market disagrees: consensus recommendation is 'hold,' not 'buy,' and 12 insider sales with zero open-market buys totaling -$660,647 net signal management lacks conviction at these levels. The 47% Monte Carlo probability of loss and -45.4% max drawdown history suggest the market is pricing execution risk the sell-side glosses over. The real variant question is whether the Q3 2025 net loss of -$3.12B was a one-time impairment or a leading indicator of structural margin pressure from ARM licensing disputes and Samsung/MediaTek share gains. Until July 29 earnings clarify, the 'oversold' RSI of 29.3 may simply reflect rational repricing.
For the current price to be right, you must believe:Five-year DCF from a base free cash flow of $12.82B, growth 23.4 percent (historical, capped), WACC 12.4 percent, terminal growth 2.5 percent: fair value $281.88 per share (49.1% vs current).
Method divergence. The DCF sits far from the market price; growth names with high betas are punished by a CAPM discount rate. The scenario range therefore anchors to the median of monte_carlo rather than the DCF alone.
| FCF growth \ WACC | 11.4% | 12.4% | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.4% | $263.14 | $234.47 | $211.13 |
| 23.4% | $317.03 | $281.88 | $253.3 |
| 25% | $336.66 | $299.15 | $268.64 |
| Ratios and valuation | |
|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | 19.89x |
| P/E (forward) | 16.82x |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.76x |
| EV/Sales | 4.61x |
| FCF yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend yield | 1.95% |
| Growth and margins | |
|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -3.5% |
| EPS growth | 173% |
| Gross margin | 54.8% |
| Operating margin | 22.1% |
| Net margin | 22.3% |
| ROE | 36.1% |
| Balance sheet and risk | |
|---|---|
| Net debt $B | 5.5 |
| Beta | 1.64 |
| Ann. volatility | 50.8% |
| Max drawdown | -45.4% |
| Short interest | n/a |
| Shares out $B | 1.05 |
| Scenario | Probability | Value | Vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | $102.49 | -45.8% |
| Base | 50% | $196.13 | 3.71% |
| Bull | 25% | $374.35 | 97.95% |
| Expected value | $217.28 | 14.9% |
Method: multi-method median (monte_carlo); dcf excluded (diverges >40% from market) · Monte Carlo p10/p50/p90 (12m, 10,000 paths): $102.49 / $196.13 / $374.35 · 1-day parametric VaR on $100k: 95% $5,264, 99% $7,443
| Risk | Severity |
|---|---|
| Earnings miss on July 29: current quarter EPS estimate $2.22 reflects -19.7% YoY decline; any guidance cut would invalidate the stabilization thesis and compress the 16.8x forward multiple | high |
| Customer concentration and ARM licensing: loss of Apple modem share or adverse ARM renegotiation would structurally impair QCT revenues and margins beyond cyclical normalization | high |
| Volatility regime: 50.8% annualized vol with beta of 1.638 means a broad market selloff amplifies losses disproportionately; 1-day 99% VaR of $7,443 per $100k position is elevated | high |
| Fed rate hike tail risk: 36.7% polymarket probability of a July 25bp hike would pressure the 16.8x forward multiple via higher discount rates on a stock trading 8.9% below its 50-day SMA of $206.82 | med |
| Insider selling pattern: 12 open-market sells, zero buys, with CFO/COO selling $270,019 on June 11 alone suggests informed skepticism about near-term trajectory | med |
| DCF divergence flags model fragility: DCF fair value of $281.88 was excluded for diverging >40% from market, implying the 23.4% growth assumption is unreliable and the valuation anchor is Monte Carlo p50 of $196.13—only 3.7% above current price | med |
Revenue across the last five reported quarters ranged from 10.37B to 12.25B. The most recent quarter ending March 2026 posted 10.6B in revenue and 7.37B in net income. The September 2025 quarter recorded a net loss of negative 3.12B, which remains unexplained in available data. Consensus expects current quarter revenue of 9.67B and next quarter revenue of 10.03B, both representing year-over-year declines of 6.7% and 11.0% respectively. Full-year next estimates of 43.76B in revenue at 2.8% growth suggest a cycle trough, but confirmation is pending.
| Quarter | Revenue $B | Net income $B |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 10.6 | 7.37 |
| 2025-12-31 | 12.25 | 3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 11.27 | -3.12 |
| 2025-06-30 | 10.37 | 2.67 |
| 2025-03-31 | 10.98 | 2.81 |
Price at 189.11 trades below the 50-day SMA of 206.82 and above the 200-day SMA of 168.87. RSI at 29.3 is in oversold territory. The 52-week range spans 124.04 to 251.17. One-month return of negative 1.1% and one-month relative underperformance versus the S&P 500 of negative 3.5% indicate near-term weakness. ATR at 5.93% of price reflects elevated daily swings. The trend reads mixed, consistent with price caught between the two moving averages.
| 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | -1.1% | 47.7% | 4% | 18.8% |
| Rel. to S&P 500 | -3.5% | 36.7% | -5.5% | -2.2% |
| Trend | Ann. vol | Max DD | RSI(14) | SMA50 | SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mixed | 50.8% | -45.4% | 29.3 | $206.82 | $168.87 |
Fed funds rate stands at 3.63% with prediction markets pricing a 61.5% probability of a hold at the July meeting and a 36.7% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54% and ten-year inflation expectations at 2.24% present a stable but elevated discount rate environment for a 1.638-beta semiconductor name. VIX at 15.03 signals low broad-market stress.
Fed funds 3.63 · UST 10y 4.54 · 10y-2y 0.35 · Core PCE 130.08 · 10y BE 2.24 · U-3 4.2 · VIX 15.03 (FRED)
Prediction markets (Polymarket): Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July: 61.5% · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul: 0.4% · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Jul: 36.7% · Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the Ju: 0.1%
Open-market: 0 buys, 12 sells, net $-660,647. EVP, CFO & COO sold $56,979 on 2026-06-11; EVP, CFO & COO sold $145,989 on 2026-06-11; EVP, CFO & COO sold $67,051 on 2026-06-11
| Block | Source |
|---|---|
| tape | alpaca |
| fundamentals | yfinance |
| news | tradingview/yahoo |
| edgar_check | sec_xbrl |
| insiders | sec_form4 |
| prediction_markets | polymarket |
| macro | fred |
SEC XBRL cross-check: FY revenue $44.28B (2025-09-28) vs trailing four quarters $44.49B: agrees.
Compliance audit: PASS